Posted by: The Busy Post | August 23, 2012

After reading this, please explain the Presidential polls to me! (Nevermind, they are no longer reliable)


Bad news for Obama! Electoral College computer model that has correctly predicted presidential elections since 1980 opts for ROMNEY

Bad news Barack: Electoral College computer model that’s correctly predicted presidential elections since 1980 shows big WIN for Romney

  • Forecast predicts loss for Obama with 218 votes versus 320 for Mitt Romney
  • University of Colorado model concludes all swing seats to vote Republican including Colorado, Ohio and Florida
  • Contrasts latest figures which predicts 282.6 votes for Obama and 255.4 for Romney

By Sara Malm

|

A model which has foretold the correct results of the Electoral College selections in U.S. Presidential elections since 1980, has predicted a loss for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.

The forecast was made by two professors at the University of Colorado who used economic data and unemployment figures from each state to predict a Republican win come November.

Political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry’s study predicts 218 electoral votes for President Barack Obama and 320 for Republican Mitt Romney with the Republican candidate winning every seat currently considered to be on the fence.

The forecast model predicted a loss for Obama with 218 seats to Romney's 320 with Romney taking home the crown in all current swing states
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney waits backstage to be introduced during a campaign stop at LeClaire Manufacturing yesterday

Obama loss, Romney win: The forecast model predicted disappointing results for President Obama with 218 seats to Romney’s 320 with Romney taking home the crown in all current swing states

The prediction model uses economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia, including income per capita and both state and national unemployment figures.

The research concluded that U.S. voters blame Democrats for high unemployment rates but hold Republicans more responsible for low per capita income.

It also showed that the advantage of holding the White House disappears for Democratic candidates when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 per cent.

‘Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,’ Professor Bickers said.

The professors’ analysis concluded that Mitt Romney would take home all swing states including Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.

President Obama, who was all smiles yesterday as he arrived at JFK Airport in New York yesterday, ought to be worried about the forecast as the computer model has predicted the correct outcome of the Electoral College selection since 1980

President Obama, who was all smiles yesterday as he arrived at JFK Airport in New York yesterday, ought to be worried about the forecast as it has predicted the correct outcome of the electoral votes since 1980

Colorado voted for Barack Obama in 2008 but the current president is predicted a marginal loss at 48.1 per cent against Mitt Romney’s 51.9 per cent, although with the caveat that only the two major parties were considered.

Although the economy has improved under Obama, Professor Berry said in a statement that it remains to be seen whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms.

This show the latest forecast from the New York Times which predicts a win for Obama in the Electoral College selections

This show the latest forecast from the New York Times which predicts a win for Obama in the Electoral College selections

‘If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008,’ Prof. Berry said.

The results of the model’s calculations are in stark contrast to current polling data. The New York Times’ latest figures for the Electoral College selections forecasts a blue win with 282.6 electoral votes for Obama and 255.4 for Romney.

On the trail: Mitt Romney met supporters at in Bettendorf, Iowa during his presidential campaign yesterday

On the trail: Mitt Romney met supporters at in Bettendorf, Iowa during his presidential campaign yesterday

Although the figure is well above the 270 electoral votes President Obama needs to hold on to his presidency, it is a decrease by 12.8 seats since the last figures on August 15.

As for the popular vote, Obama has a marginal advantage with 49.7 per cent followed by Romney on 48.7 per cent.

Although the model devised by Prof. Berry and Prof. Bickers has predicted the correct results of eight consecutive presidential elections, the data used for analysis was collected in June.

An update with figures from September is due next month which the team said could have a completely different outcome.

via Bad news for Obama! Electoral College computer model that has correctly predicted presidential elections since 1980 opts for ROMNEY | Mail Online#socialLinks#socialLinks#socialLinks.


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